In a major bet last summer, Ukraine launched a daring offensive on Russian soil, the first invasion of Russia since World War II. That incursion into the Kursk region stunned Moscow and provided a much-needed morale boost for Ukrainians, but after months of fierce fighting, Russia has recently clawed back almost all of the territory lost.
As efforts now intensify to reach a peace agreement between Kyiv and Moscow, Ukraine appears to be gambling again with a small-scale incursion into Russia. In recent days, the Ukrainian Army has staged a new cross-border push into the Belgorod region, according to Ukrainian officials, analysts of open-source intelligence and Russian military bloggers.
While the extent of the Ukrainian push into Belgorod was unclear and Ukraine’s intentions are unclear, military analysts said it was possibly an effort to draw Russian forces from Kursk to alleviate pressure there. Kyiv may also hope that grabbing another patch of Russian land could provide added diplomatic leverage, analysts said.
But Moscow has shown no willingness to make real concessions while Ukrainian troops remain on Russian territory, and Kyiv’s new push comes with obvious risks as they remain stretched across the vast front line.
The incursion appears to be much more limited in scope than the Kursk operation and has so far only secured a thin band of territory across the border, military analysts say, citing video of the battle they have verified. It was unclear how many troops were involved or the extent of the Russian response.
Ukraine has not publicly acknowledged a new attack on Russian soil. But three Ukrainian military and government officials confirmed that an operation was continuing in the Belgorod region of southern Russia, near territory Ukraine captured in the neighboring Kursk region last summer. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a confidential operation.
Russia has not said anything publicly about any Belgorod incursion. The Defense Ministry did not respond to a request for comment.
Vyacheslav Gladkov, the governor of the Belgorod region, said in a Telegram post on Friday that parts of the region were currently unsafe, citing drones and artillery attacks, but he did not mention Ukrainian troops crossing the border.
Andriy Kovalenko, a senior Ukrainian government official focused on Russian disinformation operations, declined to say if a cross-border incursion had taken place.
But he said that fighting continued to protect Ukraine from a Russian attack and that included “the destruction of enemy concentrations on the territory of Belgorod region, because the enemy planned to use these concentrations on our territory.”
Russian military bloggers, including the prominent analyst Valery Shiryaev, said that Ukraine had used armored vehicles to cross the border and that, in response, Russia had deployed Chechen battalions, regular army soldiers and naval infantry.
Both Russia and Ukraine have been trying to secure and strengthen their positions — on the battlefield and diplomatically — before the next United States-brokered talks begin at a yet-to-be-determined date.
Talks held by U.S. envoys separately with Ukraine and with Russia this week in Saudi Arabia have failed to cement a broad cease-fire deal. And commitments made by Moscow and Kyiv for a truce in the Black Sea came with many caveats and have so far done nothing to stop attacks there.
In the Belgorod region, Ukrainian forces crossed the border on March 18 and advanced into the village of Demidovka, according to the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based research organization that analyzes open-source intelligence. The forces later moved into three additional settlements near the border, the organization said.
Pasi Paroinen, an analyst with the Finland-based Black Bird Group, said that several videos verified and geolocated by his organization showed Ukrainian forces entering the Belgorod region. Ukraine, he said, managed “to secure a proper buffer zone of defendable terrain and capture several villages along the border within the first few days of the attacks,” before Russia brought in reinforcements.
One village, Demidovka, now appears to be under Ukrainian control, he said.
Videos verified by The New York Times confirm the presence of people in military uniforms in the village of Demidovka in the region of Belgorod. The Times could not confirm the people in the footage were Ukrainian forces.
Maj. Gen. Viktor Nazarov, a former senior adviser in Ukraine’s General Staff Headquarters, said that Kyiv was most likely hoping the operation would improve its negotiating position by capturing more Russian land.
Similar hopes of gaining concessions by taking the Kursk region have dimmed as Russian forces have taken back territory, said General Nazarov, currently at the International Alliance for Human Resources Readiness, a research institute.
Mykhailo Samus, the director at the independent New Geopolitics Research Network in Kyiv, said the operation seemed intended to block a potential Russian attack into Ukraine and to divert Russian forces from other fronts, as well as to strengthen Ukraine’s position in talks.
The operation, he said, would show that “Ukraine is acting proactively and that Ukrainian arguments need to be considered.”
Ivan Nechepurenko contributed reporting from Tbilisi, Georgia, Nataliia Novosolova from Kyiv, and Sanjana Varghese from London.